Humans to colonize mars by 2030

Sending humans to Mars by the 2030s is affordable, a group of experts finds, but some key changes are needed if it is going to happen.

A workshop group of more than 60 individuals representing more than 30 government, industry, academic and other organizations has found that a NASA-led manned mission to Mars is feasible if the space agency's budget is restored to pre-sequestration levels. Putting the first humans on the Red Planet would also require international cooperation and private industry support.

There is a growing consensus among the space community that a manned mission to Mars should be a priority worth working toward in the coming years, according to Chris Carberry the executive director of Explore Mars Inc., the organization that hosted the workshop with the American Astronautical Society. [5 Manned Mission to Mars Ideas]

"To be able to make it feasible and affordable, you need a sustainable budget," Carberry told SPACE.com. "You need a budget that is consistent, that you can predict from year to year and that doesn't get canceled in the next administration."

Budget issues

While Carberry said that it is possible to launch a manned mission to Mars by the 2030s under pre-sequestration budget levels, a NASA-led human mission to Mars will probably never launch under current budgetary constraints, Carberry said.

"We're not far off from what we need," Carberry said. "We just need to get back into a reasonable budget, which we're not in right now."

President Barack Obama requested about $17.7 billion for NASA during his2013 budget proposal, $59 million less than what the space agency received in 2012.

"[NASA] funds are divided between various missions, directorates and centers," Carberry said via email. "Unless there was a MAJOR restructuring, it would be hard to accomplish a NASA-led Mars mission [under the current budget]. That said, major disruptive technology gains could always occur that could make it viable — we just can't count on that happening."

From now until the 2030s

The workshop group's plan hinges partially upon the availability of NASA's heavy-lifting rocket, the Space Launch System, and the space agency's deep space crew capsule, the Orion spacecraft. SLS and Orion are both in development now, with Orion's first unmanned test flight slated for later this year.

In December 2013, attendees affiliated with NASA, Boeing, Orbital Sciences Corp. and many others at the Affording Mars Workshop arrived at six agreements that could frame the way that space agencies work toward a manned mission to Mars. They are:

• The goal of sending humans to Mars is affordable with the right partnerships (international, commercial/industrial, intergovernmental, etc.), commitment to efficiency, constancy of purpose and policy/budget consistency.
• Human exploration of Mars is technologically feasible by the 2030s.
• Mars should be the priority for human spaceflight over the next two to three decades.
• Between now and 2030, investments and activities in the human exploration of space must be prioritized in a manner that advances the objective of initial human missions to Mars beginning in the 2030s.
• Utilizing the International Space Station, including international partnerships, is essential for human missions to deep space.
• Continuation of robotic precursor missions to Mars throughout the 2020s is essential for the success of human missions to Mars.

Carberry said that the experts are still not sure whether a long or short mission to the Red Planet would be best when launching the first manned mission to Mars.

Getting to Mars

As a model of international collaboration and a huge undertaking in space, the International Space Station (ISS) could provide vital lessons about getting humans to Mars, Carberry said. The space station mission, which has been newly extended through 2024, is the best example of a consistent budget set forth for a huge project in space, he added.

mars would look like this if life comes on mars